In containing and mitigating the diffusion of COVID-19, countries are not fully able to pursue local trace-and-isolate strategies, given the difficulties in detecting place-based infections and outbreaks due to positive asymptomatic cases. This paper explores whether and to what extent Local Labour Markets, as functional areas defined by employment self-containment indexes and labour mobility, might grasp the spatial dynamics of COVID-19 diffusion. By performing an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis and estimating two linear regression models, this work examines whether and how municipal variations of mortality rates in 2020 are associated with labour mobility and labour-market performances. The analysis addresses the Italian provinces of Bergamo and Brescia as two of the worst affected areas of the country in respect to both reported deaths and confirmed infections. Albeit in an explorative fashion, findings suggest that the Local Labour Market is an appropriate scale of analysis to better understand spatial dynamics of COVID-19 diffusion. Highly interconnected Local Labour Markets, characterized by substantial in-and-out commuting flows, display high positive variations of 2020 mortality rates, whereas those which do not bear external commuting flows tend to exhibit lower variations of 2020 mortality rates. Additionally, Local Labour Markets whose firms are more inclined to export display lower variations of 2020 mortality rates.
Keywords Covid-19; Commuting; Local Labour Market; Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis; Italy.
